Apparel - Retail
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“TJX has been in a steep decline, down 18% in the past month and trading near 52-week lows. The selloff was triggered by its August 19 Q2 earnings — while EPS beat estimates, the core Marmaxx division posted weak 1% comps and Q3 guidance disappointed, leading to analyst downgrades from Jefferies and Gordon Haskett. The stock is deeply oversold after its 12% below the 50-day MA, but near-term catalysts are lacking. Waiting for a clearer catalyst or stabilization before buying is prudent.”
Updated 09-07 21:45
The Federal Reserve left rates at 3.50%-3.75% in July with 3 FOMC members dissenting in favor of a hike; markets now price ~60% odds of a rate increase at the Sep 15-16 meeting, which would pressure consumer discretionary spending and retail valuations.
The ongoing US-Iran conflict has driven oil prices sharply higher, reducing consumer purchasing power and raising input costs for retailers; the Strait of Hormuz disruption threatens further energy price spikes that could crimp TJX's value-conscious customer base.
Ross Stores posted a 10% comparable-sales increase in Q2 2026 versus TJX's overall 4% comp, with TJX's core Marmaxx segment decelerating to ~1% from ~6% a year ago — Ross is clearly winning the off-price race and taking market share.
TJX has dropped ~11% in a month to $132.08, near its 52-week low of $130.15, while the S&P 500 has rallied; the stock is well below its 50-day ($150.05) and 200-day ($154.72) moving averages, indicating a bearish technical trend with no clear reversal signal.
Jefferies downgraded TJX to Hold from Buy and slashed its price target to $145 from $180, citing a more serious-than-expected slowdown at Marmaxx; Citi also downgraded to Neutral, and the company's soft Q3 guidance (2-3% comps) disappointed the market despite a Q2 earnings beat.
Updated 09-07 21:45
Updated 09-07 21:45