Semiconductors
🏛 Recent congressional trades
“Today's modest +1.4% bounce is a dead-cat rebound after the Sept 14 crash, when TER plunged 13% alongside a broad AI selloff triggered by industry leaders publicly calling for slower frontier AI development over safety concerns. The stock remains in a deep downtrend -- down 19% in the past month and 7% below its 50-day moving average. No fundamental news today justifies a reversal. Until AI capex fears subside and the stock reclaims its 50-day line, rallies are selling opportunities, not buying entries.”
Updated 09-17 03:28
The Fed is widely expected to hike interest rates today (Sept 16, 2026) for the first time since 2023, with odds at 85%, and the 10-year Treasury yield is hovering above 5%, pressuring high-valuation semiconductor growth stocks like TER.
US-China semiconductor export controls continue to intensify, with Teradyne having already pulled ~$1B worth of manufacturing out of Suzhou, China; 50% of TER's revenue comes from Taiwan and China combined, exposing it to significant geopolitical risk.
Teradyne's Q2 2026 revenue surged 104% YoY to $1.33B, with Semiconductor Test revenue up 128% YoY to $1.12B driven by explosive AI accelerator and HBM memory test demand; management guided robust Q3 on AI tailwinds with consensus price target at $461.50.
The S&P Semiconductors Select Index has rallied 52.8% YTD but pulled back 21.2% during the current quarter, reflecting profit-taking after an extraordinary run; TER itself is down ~5.9% month-to-date from its June 2026 all-time high of $487.91.
The FOMC rate decision is being announced today, with Chair Kevin Warsh expected to deliver a hawkish rate hike that could trigger near-term volatility across tech and semiconductor stocks, though strong AI earnings fundamentals may cushion the downside.
Updated 09-17 03:28
Updated 09-17 03:28